Freight budgets are not projected with general inflation: transport has its own inflation (diesel, tolls, driver wages, and security premium) that has run above CPI in recent years. Healthy formula: forecast volume × indexed contracted rate + accessorials from real history + seasonality, minus the leak you will stop paying. Multiplying last year’s dirty spend by general inflation inherits the leak and underestimates sector inflation.
- leak in 2026 base
- 2–7%
- accessorials of spend
- 5–15%
- better proxy than CPI
- PPI
- budget window
- Aug–Oct
Cluster: audit invoice · tender · peak season.
Clean the base before projecting
2026 spend holds 2–7% leakage. A 100-invoice diagnostic delivers a clean base and the first savings line.
2027 budget
Healthy formula (not CPI)
Volume
forecast
Rate
contracted
Extras
real history
Leak
2–7%
You stop paying
Classic error
Multiplying last year’s dirty spend by general inflation inherits the leak.
Sector drivers, not CPI
| Driver | How to project it |
|---|---|
| Diesel (~40% of CPK) | Scenarios on your indexation formula |
| Tolls | CAPUFE updates by corridor |
| Driver wages | Above inflation while the deficit lasts |
| Security premium | Per theft map on your routes |
| Contracted rates | Your tender result, not an assumption |
Accessorials from history
Project with your real event rate per 100 shipments × contracted fee. If you do not know the rate, that is the finding.
Explicit seasonality
A flat monthly budget guarantees surprise in peak season and under-spend in January.
Recovery line
If you will audit in 2027, expected recovery is a P&L line with owner and target: 2–7% by flow.
Three classic errors
Three classic budget errors
Finance forecasts; operations executes; nobody compares by corridor.
01
Rate only
You budget base and run total cost (extras “were not in”).
02
Savings without audit
Lower rate recovers via accessorials in 6 months.
03
No close
No actual vs budget by corridor and concept each month.
Elige un paso para ver el detalle
Detalle del paso · 01
Actual vs budget by corridor
What OCL runs
OCL Cargo is a shipper-side autonomous TMS: agents with computer use build the trip file and reconcile before pay, whether the invoice is from a direct carrier or a 3PL. It can stamp invoice and Carta Porte. Coexists without day-one migration; humans on exceptions. 5–7% pattern when auditing 100%.
Pre-pay
Own control
Base
Clean
Rate
Indexed
Extras
History
Target
2–7%
6–8 week pilot
Baseline the topic, 100% pre-pay reconciliation, and an annual projection for finance.
Key takeaways5 points
- Do not multiply dirty spend × general inflation.
- Formula: volume × indexed rate + historical extras + seasonality − leak.
- Accessorials: 5–15% of spend; project with real event rates.
- Add a 2–7% recovery line with an owner.
- OCL cleans the base and defends the budget invoice by invoice; 6–8 week pilot.
Budget 2027 on a clean base: how much leakage is in your 2026 spend?
Related reading
Frequently asked questions
No generic number: build yours with your corridors and indexation formula. External proxy: trucking PPI (INEGI), better than CPI.
By corridor for trunks (80% of spend) and a global pool for the long tail.
August–October, in parallel with the tender.
Audit recovery (2–7% of spend) with an owner and a target.
Cleans the 2026 base with a 100-invoice diagnostic and projects recovery. 6–8 week pilot.