Dispatch volatility measures how erratic the daily volume you put on the road is. It is calculated with the coefficient of variation (CV): standard deviation of daily dispatch ÷ average for the period. In this guide the unit is locked to trips per day — a decision tool for private fleet vs logistics operator (3PL), not report decoration.
- CV = std. deviation ÷ average
- σ ÷ μ
- locked unit in this guide
- Trips/day
- typical horizon per lane
- 20–30 days
- what CV is for
- Fleet vs 3PL
What dispatch volatility (CV) is
On Mexico–U.S. operations, “dispatch” is the volume you put out each day (here: trips/day). If Monday you run 40 trips and Thursday 12, the average can look “fine” while private fleet suffers: capacity sits idle one day and runs short the next.
The coefficient of variation compresses that swing into one dimensionless number (or a %). It is a sibling of utilization and load density (kg/km), but it answers a different question: not “how full is each km,” but “how predictable is daily capacity.”
Service context (not CV): the 4th National Logistics Indicators Study 2026 (#SoyLogístico / LDM / EGADE) reports delivery fill rate ~93% average in its sample. Calibrate fill expectations with that reading; do not invent a “national CV” from the study.
Formula: CV in trips/day (locked unit)
The KPIs hub allows kg/day or trips/day. This page chooses trips/day and does not switch: the fleet vs 3PL lever executes in units and appointments.
Daily series
Operable definition: Number of trips dispatched per business day
Notes: Same lane / same universe
Average (μ)
Operable definition: Mean trips/day in the period
Notes: Typically 20–30 business days
Standard deviation (σ)
Operable definition: Dispersion of that daily series
Notes: Same window as the average
CV
Operable definition: σ ÷ μ
Notes: Dimensionless; sometimes ×100 as %
How to read low CV and high CV
There is no universal “good” threshold. Compare your CV to your own lane history and to how rigid your capacity is. A “low” CV in retail with fixed appointments does not look like a “low” CV in border spot.
- Low CV: predictable daily demand. Private fleet or dedicated contract can pay if utilization clears your cost threshold.
- High CV: peaks and valleys. Fixed capacity sits idle (you pay empty / idle time) or falls short (breaks OTIF and lights expensive spot).
- Stable CV but falling OTIF: the problem is not volume — it is appointments, dock, fill, or lead time.
CV × OTIF: private fleet vs 3PL
The matrix from the distribution hub: cross volatility with a service signal to choose a lever — not to decorate the QBR.
Low CV + stable volume
Read: Predictable demand
Typical lever (fleet vs 3PL): Private fleet or dedicated contract can pay if utilization clears the threshold
High CV + peaks
Read: Rigid capacity overshoots or undershoots
Typical lever (fleet vs 3PL): 3PL / spot with SLA and trip file — not a WhatsApp promise
High CV + low OTIF
Read: Erratic volume + broken promise
Typical lever (fleet vs 3PL): Before buying tractors: appointments, lead time, tender rules
Low CV + low OTIF
Read: Stable volume but broken execution
Typical lever (fleet vs 3PL): Do not blame volatility: dock, POD, fill, windows
High CV + high OTIF
Read: Peaks absorbed with good service
Typical lever (fleet vs 3PL): Check cost: is spot/3PL already paying for the flexibility?
Lead time, appointments, and tender
High volatility without anticipation rules turns every peak into an emergency. The lead time (order–delivery or order–dispatch cycle time — write your definition) and dock appointments are the operating buffer before you decide fleet CAPEX.
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Mexico context: service ≠ volatility
On Mexico–Laredo lanes, Bajío–border, or national retail DC distribution, the network average hides the customer that creates Tuesday valleys and Friday peaks. Calculate CV by lane (and by customer when relevant), not only the roll-up.
National Study 2026 is useful for fill rate / service (~93% delivery in sample). It is not a dispatch CV table. Anyone publishing “ideal CV 15% in Mexico” without an operable source is inventing precision. Calibrate with your series and the distribution KPIs hub.
How to calculate CV in 30 days
One lane and one month are enough to stop debating “there is a lot of variation” and move to a documented capacity decision.
CV pilot
From series to lever
Pick a lane
Clear universe
Lock unit
Trips/day
Build series
20–30 business days
Compute CV
σ ÷ μ
Cross OTIF
Same window
Choose lever
Fleet, 3PL, or process
Common mistakes using CV
Switching kg/day ↔ trips/day mid-quarter
Why it hurts: Incomparable series
Fix: One unit per board; parallel series if needed
CV with no horizon or lane
Why it hurts: Noise or an average that hides peaks
Fix: 20–30 days + lane cut
Using CV as a customer target
Why it hurts: Confuses capacity with OTIF
Fix: CV internal; OTIF / SLA on the scorecard
Buying fleet only because CV is high
Why it hurts: You freeze idle time or shortages
Fix: CV × OTIF matrix + utilization cost
3PL without trip file or SLA
Why it hurts: Expensive, indefensible flexibility
Fix: Contract + POD + auditable rates
OCL and the capacity decision
OCL Cargo is an autonomous transportation management system (TMS) with agents: it does not replace your fleet model on day one. It concentrates trips, exceptions, proof of delivery (POD), and documents under one ID so CV and OTIF compute from the same operational truth. It coexists with your TMS and GPS; your team handles exceptions only. When applicable, OCL can stamp invoices and Carta Porte — 3PL flexibility stops fighting an incomplete trip file.
Related reading
- Distribution KPIs for Mexico–U.S. — hub: formulas, OTIF, drop size, volatility fleet vs 3PL.
- Lead time guide — buffer before fleet CAPEX.
- OTIF — on time and in full.
- Logistics operator (3PL) — variable capacity with SLA.
- Load density (kg/km) — distance utilization (sibling of this page).
- Drop size · Km per delivery.
- Distribution costs.
Key takeaways6 points
- Dispatch volatility = coefficient of variation (CV) = standard deviation ÷ average of daily dispatch.
- On this page the unit is locked to trips/day — do not mix with kg/day mid-quarter.
- Low CV + stable volume to private fleet or dedicated can pay if utilization clears the threshold.
- High CV + peaks to variable capacity (3PL / spot) with SLA and trip file — not a WhatsApp promise.
- High CV + low OTIF to fix lead time, appointments, and tender before buying tractors.
- National Study 2026: fill rate ~93% sample = service context, not a CV benchmark.
Does your CV justify private fleet — or only explain dispatch chaos?
Frequently asked questions
It is how erratic daily outbound volume is, measured with the coefficient of variation (CV) = standard deviation ÷ average. In this guide dispatch is locked to trips/day.
Not automatically. High CV + peaks favors variable capacity (logistics operator / 3PL or spot) if service level agreement (SLA) and trip file are clear. High CV + low OTIF asks you to fix appointments and lead time before buying tractors.
Both are valid; the KPIs hub allows kg or trips. Here we lock trips/day because fleet vs 3PL decisions execute in slots and units, not only kilos. The critical rule: do not switch units mid-quarter.
In practice, 20–30 business days on one lane (or a calendar month). Less than two weeks is usually noise; mixing seasons without labels biases the average.
No. CV explains whether volume is predictable. OTIF (On Time In Full) explains whether you kept the promise.Read them as a matrix: CV × OTIF signal to different lever.
Do not use a viral %. The National Logistics Indicators Study 2026 gives service context (e.g. ~93% delivery fill rate in its sample), not an official dispatch CV. Calibrate with your own lane history.
OCL concentrates trips, exceptions, and evidence under one ID so CV stops living in a spreadsheet apart from OTIF and the payment file. It coexists with your TMS; your team handles exceptions.